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Post by PaulDV on Apr 12, 2018 14:12:21 GMT
Hi gang!
I've been on a bit of a hiatus following the demise of my trading account - as I hope you can imagine, losing such a large amount of money can have an adverse affect on your psychology!
Anyway, I've re-couped and gathered my thoughts, tried a few other things and am persuing other avenues, trading-wise, but I am also feeling drawn back to Steam once again.
During my absence, I have bought Tick Data Suite, and have been using it to back-test a number of other EAs to come up with some successful settings which I am now using live. My new-found knowledge, along with access to much better quality tick data (99.9% accurate vs the - at best - 90% quality data from the broker) has lead me to turn my focus back to Steam again, and I've spent the past few weeks back-testing and optimising Steam settings with a view to coming up with a strategy that works long-term.
If you want to try my new settings for yourself (demo only please!), they are: TP=15, SL=40, Risk=15 (or what you're comfortable with), Retrace_Exit=Off No news filter, no time of day filter. Over a 14 month period (Jan17 to Mar18) Steam took 528 trades, losing 116 (21.97%), winning 412 (78.03%) Profit for the 14 months: £15,741 (starting balance of £10,000). Drawdown was heavy (74.93%) but never came close to killing the account.
I'm doing some analysis on the affects of using LRT on the above and will report back with more detailed findings soon.
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Post by PaulDV on Apr 16, 2018 12:31:05 GMT
I've now completed an in deptch review of the trades and the likely affects of using Loss Recovery Trader to turn as many of the losing trades into wins. I used three different settings: - ExitPips=80, MaxOrders=3
- ExitPips=60, Max Orders=3
- ExitPips=40, Max Orders=3
With only 3 orders (that's a maximum of two attempts at recovery before giving up), the number of losses were still too high to make a good return on the initial account balance,
Increasing the MaxOrders to 4, reduced the number of losses by half in most instances, so I went back through the trades, simulating 3 attempts at recovery, and achieved the following results:
- 50 losses turned into wins; 53 losses missed; 174 wins missed; 288 wins total with 13 losses total.
- 65 losses turned into wins; 44 losses missed; 127 wins missed; 350 wins total with 7 losses total.
- 85 losses turned into wins; 28 losses missed; 88 wins missed; 406 wins total with 6 losses total.
Using the calculator that comes with Loss Recovery Trader, the optimum settings, using MaxOrders=4, appears to be 9% risk, with a RecoveryExitPips=60. This gives roughly 3% return for every win, with a 60% loss with every final loss (i.e. it's tried 3 times to save the original loss, but the market wants to turn again).
Using a $10,000 initial balance, the above options translate to a respective final balance of: - $41,848
- $509,857
- Blown account
I've posted details of the settings in the strategy section, here: forexbotting.freeforums.net/post/387/thread
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